🧠 A Recipe for Disaster


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Welcome to Long-Term Mindset, the Wednesday newsletter that helps you invest better.

Today's Issue Read Time: <2 minutes

  • Lesson: The scourge of certainty.
  • Timeless Content: The Perils of Concentration
  • Stock Dive: A full breakdown of Innodata
  • Resource: What to Tell Your Kids About Work in the Age of AI
  • And more!

Which stock should we research live next?​

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On Tuesday, September 30th, at 12:00 PM (Noon) EDT, we will research a stock from scratch live using our custom AI prompts, and we want you to pick the stock.

We'll announce the winner on Friday, Sept 26th.

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**By voting, you'll automatically be included in the webinar notification emails!

Friends,

Do you know Martin Shkreli? He grabbed headlines in 2015 when he raised the price of an antiparasitic drug his company owned by over 5,000%. Later, he was sentenced to prison for securities fraud.

But he was released in 2022 and has been making a name for himself anew as a retail investor. In June, he appeared on a podcast with noted FinX (finance on X / Twitter) personality Shay Boloor. They discussed quantum computing stocks, and things got heated.

  • Shkreli said he was raising capital to bet against quantum computing stocks.
  • Boloor pointed out that Shkreli had been wrong on the bet thus far and was digging his hole further.

This past week, the interview bubbled up again.

The reason: thus far, Boloor has been vindicated. IonQ and Rigetti Computing -- for instance -- are both up over 500% since going public, and both are up over 70% since the interview.

But to us, that's besides the point. What we noticed the most was how sure each side seemed to be of their argument. It was personal. There didn't seem to be room to consider that they might be wrong.

In short, both sides were certain of their thesis.

Now, don't get us wrong -- conviction is absolutely necessary to be a successful investor. However, over the long run, that conviction needs to be continually and relentlessly tested by a healthy dose of uncertainty.

This is not a fun process. It will make you feel uncomfortable, appear weak, and second-guess your moves...over the short-term.

But that is the price you pay for long-term results.

The exact same process will eventually lead you to feel comfortable with discomfort, operate from a position of strength, and leave room to change your mind.

Accepting discomfort and uncertainty: the cost of admission for long-term outperformance -- in investing and in life.

Wishing you investing success,

Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers

Long-Term Mindset

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One piece of timeless content

Market Sentiment recently published a thought-provoking post titled The Perils of Concentration. It's worth a read for anyone wondering how many stocks they should own.

One Stock Dive

​Fiscal.ai has introduced a new feature for premium users, enabling them to generate AI-powered stock research reports. This week, we're highlighting Innodata, Inc. (NASDAQ:INOD), a requested stock from one of our subscribers. Click the button below for free access:

Do you have a stock you'd like us to feature here? Reply to this email with your pick.

One resource

[Withers here] I was texting with my son this past week about what kind of world his son/my grandson will grow up in. Especially with the uncertainty around how A.I. will shape our future. That led me to Vincent Hunt's blog post titled: Dear, Parents: What to Tell Your Kids About Work in the Age of AI.​

One quote

Brian Feroldi

Brian Stoffel

Brian Withers

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β€‹πŸ§  Do better​

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Long-Term Mindset

I teach investors how to analyze businesses. Each Wednesday, I share six pieces of timeless content that can be read in less than 2 minutes. Read by 100,000+ investors from a16z, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and more.

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