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Welcome to Long-Term Mindset, the Wednesday newsletter that helps you invest better.

Today's Issue Read Time: <2 minutes

• Lesson: What the Titanic Voyage can teach us about investing
• Timeless Content: Howard Marks Talks Tariffs
• Thread: Importance of Company Mission Statements
• Resource: Wes Moss' Retirement Calculator
• And more!

Join Us For A Free Investing Masterclass: Join us next Tuesday (April 29th) at 12:00 PM EDT for an investing masterclass: Surviving Trump's Tariffs ​ In this masterclass, you'll learn to: ​ 📊 Master the Basics: Identify four key ratios that represent the "vitals" of a company's financial health. 💡 Make Smarter Decisions: Use this information to decide if a company is too risky...before it's too late. 🚀 Practice Your Skill: Get real-life examples of companies with healthy -- and not so healthy -- vitals ❓Q&A: Ask Brian anything ​ To register for this free event with 1 click, click this button: ​Yes! Register me for the webinar instantly!

Friends,

On April 14, 1912, the Northern Atlantic was full of icebergs. The Titanic received six different warnings about them. Without any moonlight, proceeding at full speed seemed outrageous.

But at the urging of J. Bruce Ismay -- Chairman of The Titanic's parent company -- the captain made the fateful decision to continue at well over 20 knots. Ismay, wrapped up in competition with the rival Cunard line, wanted to prove how quickly The Titanic could travel. Plus, the ship had been deemed "unsinkable."

We know how that turned out.

There were three key factors at play:

• Clear dangers: The floating masses had been spotted and reported.
• Opaqueness: Without any moonlight, spotting icebergs was difficult.
• Over-confidence: Management thought the ship was unsinkable.

There's no doubt that slowing to a snail's pace would be frustrating. But when the three ingredients above combine, the outcome can be tragic.

As investors enter one of the most unique earnings seasons in recent memory, there's a lesson we can learn here.

• Clear dangers: The tariffs aiming to remake the global trade system are at levels not seen in the past century.
• Opaqueness: Not only are second-order consequences of tariffs hard to predict, but it seems like the terms of the tariffs are changing on a day-by-day basis.

Given that, it is up to us, as investors, to decide our level of confidence.

Rest assured, most executives of publicly traded companies will be extremely cautious with their full-year guidance over the next few weeks. That's the prudent course to take. We should mimic that behavior in our own expectations.

However, overconfidence can run in both directions:

• By going 100% to cash, you're overconfident in thinking the stock market is fated to plunge.
• By continuously buying the dip and remaining 100% invested, you're over-confident in thinking the market will quickly bounce back.

There's a third path -- a "Middle Way" available: one that balances the fact that there are unprecedented obstacles ahead, and that the global economy has an unmatched record of moving beyond these obstacles.

One "middle way" approach is to carry a larger cash balance than normal. That's what the three of us are doing.

The Middle Way often feels dissatisfying in the short-term, but -- with the benefit of hindsight -- is often regarded as the wisest approach.

Wishing you investing success,

Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers Long Term Mindset

One simple graphic

One piece of timeless content

Howard Marks, co-founder of Oaktree Capital Management, penned a memo about the current market conditions, aptly titled "Nobody Knows (Yet Again)." The "Yet Again" part is because he published a similar memo during the 2020 COVID stock market meltdown and the 2008 Financial crisis.

One thread

Brian Feroldi @BrianFeroldi 1/ Mission Statements 🧵 I used to think mission statements were just corporate fluff False words that companies created for HR reasons I've slowly changed my mind about them They are THE BEST stakeholder alignment & decision-making tool ever EVER! Need convincing? ⬇️⬇️⬇️⬇️ 8:34 AM • Jan 6, 2021 102 Retweets 453 Likes Read 27 replies

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Don't have a Twitter/X account? Click here to view the thread.

One resource

Wes Moss is self-described as a "money educator [who] has devoted his professional life to helping Americans retire sooner than they ever thought possible." He has published a free retirement calculator, along with a simple and more detailed version.

One quote

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