The Power of Process.


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Welcome to Long-Term Mindset, the Wednesday newsletter that helps you invest better.

Today's Issue Read Time: <2 minutes

  • Lesson: David Gardner and Aaron Rodgers
  • Timeless Content: Historical Look at the Top 10 Largest S&P500 Stocks
  • Thread: Ray Dalio's Investing Principles
  • Resource: Aswath Damodaran Talks Globalization
  • And more!

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Friends,

On the surface, David Gardner and Aaron Rodgers don't have much in common. The former co-founded The Motley Fool before establishing himself as one of the greatest growth investors of our time; the latter has won four NFL Most Valuable Player awards during his career.

But their professions share a lot in common: they've repeatedly made high-stakes decisions while facing a world designed to be nearly impossible to predict. While neither is perfect, they've both handled the task quite well.

How did they pull that off?

My guess (Stoffel, here): It started with board games.

No, I'm not kidding.

Gardner's style began taking shape in college. After repeatedly getting trounced by his roommate in the board game Pursue the Pennant, Gardner asked what the secret was.

The answer: don't pay attention to headline figures like batting averages. Look at less appreciated -- but more impactful -- figures like on-base percentage.

Gardner took the insight of looking for under-appreciated but impactful signals and applied it to investing. He developed his six signs of a Rule Breaker to help buy -- and hold -- stocks like Amazon, which has returned over 100,000% since.

Rodgers followed a similar path. In his recent Netflix documentary, Rodgers talked about how he'd play baseball board game Strat-o-Matic for hours as a kid.

When asked if mathematics played a role in how he saw the football field, he said:

"You're throwing the ball to the open guy. You're going through your progressions. But in the end, it's all percentages."

Few have played those percentages better. From 2010 to 2021, only 1.4% of his passes were intercepted (the lowest on record). And he still has the highest QB rating of anyone who's ever played the position.

Inspiration can come from funny spaces. But the lesson remains the same: if you want to succeed in a realm governed by uncertainty, develop a system that helps you focus on finding the few things you can know for sure and remain laser-focused on those things.

In the world of investing, we believe that means finding mission-driven, wide-moat companies that trade for reasonable valuations and holding them as long as they have those characteristics.

Wishing you continued investing success,

Brian Feroldi, Brian Stoffel, & Brian Withers

Long Term Mindset

One simple graphic

One piece of timeless content

Ben Carlson shares the top 10 largest S&P500 market cap stocks since 1980. It's an interesting perspective on how the world has changed in the last 45 years.

One resource

NYU Finance Professor Aswath Damodaran is best known for his work on valuation. But, recently, he's penned an article called Investing Politics: Globalization Backlash and Government Disruption! It's a lengthy read but filled with insights for investors on what's going on in the world today.

One quote

Brian Feroldi

Brian Stoffel

Brian Withers

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Long-Term Mindset

I teach investors how to analyze businesses. Each Wednesday, I share six pieces of timeless content that can be read in less than 2 minutes. Read by 100,000+ investors from a16z, Amazon, Google, Microsoft, and more.

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